What is in this article?:
- Record U.S. rice acreage in 2010.
- Fallout from poor quality 2010 rice crop a concern.
- Expectations for rice lag behind more bullish commodities.
What about 2011 U.S. rice acreage? “Numbers I’ve seen project Arkansas to be down 19 percent, Louisiana down 34 percent, Mississippi down 31 percent, Missouri down 27 percent, Texas down 15 percent and California down 8 percent.”
Brothers disagreed with only the California prediction. “I think California will be back at the normal 550,000 to 600,000 acres. They have adequate water, good rainfall. I’ve talked to people out there and there’s no disagreement that the 525,000 acre projection is too low.”
Meanwhile, it appears good rice crops await harvest in Asia. “The Thais are just about to harvest their second crop (the country’s major export crop), the Vietnamese will harvest soon, and the South Americans appear to have a good crop. We see more competition coming into our marketplace over the next few months, rather than less. I am concerned.”
Looking at stocks-to-use ratio, corn is at 5 percent (“extremely low”), wheat is at 33 percent (being driven largely by problems in Russia), and soybean is at 4 percent (“really strong”). Long-grain rice is at 24 percent, medium-grain is at 12.7 percent.
Rice “just doesn’t have the same strong fundamentals being seen in the other crops. I wish it did.”