• Record production — 187.2 million cwt.

• Record total supply — 266.1 million cwt.

• Total exports — fifth largest at 80 million cwt.

• Total use — second largest at 179 million cwt.

• Ending stocks — second largest on record at 47.1 million cwt.

2010-12 U.S. medium grain rice projections:

• Production — fifth largest at 58.6 million cwt.

• Total supply — 12th largest at 71.3 million cwt.

• Total exports — second largest at 34 million cwt.

• Total use — second largest at 64 million cwt.

• Ending stocks — second smallest at 7.3 million cwt

FSA 2010 preliminary certified Arkansas rice data

Farm Service Agency’s 2010 preliminary certified Arkansas rice data shows Arkansas rice producers with 1.59million long grain rice acres, 192,003 medium grain rice acres, and a record total rice acres of 1.78 million acres. NASS current Arkansas rice harvested acreage estimate is 1.68 acres for a difference of 104,585 acres. USDA’s June acreage report estimated Arkansas at 1,53 acres of long grain rice harvested acres and 149,000 acres of medium grain rice.

What is the price outlook for rice and wheat prices?

Realistically if you want to gain perspective about the big picture, review USDA Supply and Demand Balance Sheet.

USDA’s average all rice farm price for the three most current marketing periods are: 2008-09, $16.80 per cwt.; 2009-10, $14 per cwt.; and 2010-11, $10.75-$11.75 per cwt.

USDA’s average long grain rice farm price for the three most current marketing periods are: 2008-09, $14.90 per cwt.; 2009-10, $12.80 per cwt.; and 2010-11, $9-$10 per cwt.

USDA’s average medium grain rice farm price for the three most current marketing periods are: 2008-09, $24.80 per cwt.; 2009-10, $17.80 per cwt.; and 2010-11, $17.00-18.00 per cwt.

USDA’s U.S. wheat farm price for the three most current marketing periods are: 2008-09, $6.78 per bushel; 2009-10, $4.87 per bushel; and 2010-11, $4.70-$5.50 per bushel.

The more immediate question of price movement involves ones expectation about how robust U.S. government policy will be in managing deflation, the strength or weakness in global growth, emergence of additional global weather problems or the underlying potential weather problems, and lastly, the level of speculative activity. Also, refer back to the question “Is there a global shortage of food grains?”