U.S. cotton production estimate lowered to 17.5 million bales According to USDA's Oct. 12 crop production report, the Missouri Bootheel will have the second largest average cotton yield in the Delta this year, behind Arkansas.

Unfortunately, the increase in yield is due primarily to a 25,000 acre decrease in harvested acreage from last month.

The lower harvested acreage in Missouri and other states where cotton has suffered from season-long stresses prompted USDA to reduce U.S. cotton production by 4.5 percent to 17.5 million bales this month. USDA also reduced domestic mill use slightly and exports were revised down 4 percent, reflecting both lower available supplies and reduced foreign import demand. Ending stocks are now projected at 3.8 million bales, 21.5 percent of total use.

U.S. yield is expected to average 620 pounds per harvested acre, down 2 pounds from last month. Harvested acreage, at 13.5 million acres, reflects a decrease from Sept. 1 of 25,000 acres in Missouri, 50,000 acres in Oklahoma, and 504,000 acres in Texas.

USDA raised yield forecasts in Missouri by 18 pounds from September, 678 pounds to 696 pounds, while lowering forecasts for Mississippi, 686 pounds to 658 pounds, and Louisiana, 672 pounds to 631. Yields in Arkansas and Tennessee were unchanged from last month at 728 pounds and 565 pounds, respectively.

Global 2000/01 cotton production was raised slightly as increases for Pakistan, China, Brazil and Zimbabwe were almost entirely offset by reductions for the United States, the African franc zone, Sudan, and Australia.

World consumption also is up slightly, with increases for Pakistan and China partially offset by reductions for importing countries including Taiwan, Korea, Italy, and the United States. With lower expected world import demand, world trade was reduced - exports are lower this month for Sudan, the United States, Uzbekistan, the African franc zone, and others.

World ending stocks for 1999/2000 were raised 550,000 bales.

USDA also estimated smaller corn and soybean crops and larger rice production. However, the corn and soybean crops still stand as all-time records.

Corn grain production was forecast at 10.2 billion bushels, down 2 percent from last month, but up 8 percent from 1999. Based on Oct. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 139.6 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from last month but up 5.8 bushels from a year ago. If realized, this would be the largest production and yield on record. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 73 million acres, down 50,000 acres from last month due to extremely dry weather in Colorado.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.82 billion bushels, down 3 percent from Sept. 1, but 6 percent above 1999. The yield forecast, at 38.7 bushels per acre, decreased 0.8 bushel from last month, but is 2.1 bushels above the 1999 final yield.

The U.S. 2000/01 rice crop is projected at 192.2 million cwt, up slightly from last month. Average yield is forecast at a record 6,230 pounds per acre, up 18 pounds per acre from last month.

Global 2000/01 rice production and ending stocks were lowered from a month ago while consumption and exports were raised slightly. The decrease in production is due primarily to smaller crops projected for Cambodia, Laos, and North Korea, which were partially offset by increases in Japan and several African countries.