This month's 2001/02 U.S. projections for cotton supply and demand indicate larger production, lower disappearance, and sharply higher ending stocks. An estimated production increase of 2 percent reflects the larger planted area (16.3 million acres) reported in USDA's June 29 acreage report, which was partially offset by higher estimated abandonment due to adverse conditions in Texas.
Domestic mill use was projected down 3.4 percent from June, indicating both deeper cuts in retail use and more permanent reductions in the spinning industry than previously anticipated. Exports projections remain at 9 million bales, as the pressure of larger U.S. exportable supplies is likely to be met with competition from larger world supplies. Projected ending stocks were raised 11 percent to 7.3 million bales, the largest since 1985/86.
Global 2001/02 estimated cotton production was raised 1.2 percent due to higher area and generally favorable growing conditions across the Northern Hemisphere. Beginning stocks were raised marginally and consumption was reduced slightly, resulting in ending stocks of 40 million bales, up 4 percent from June and 2.1 million bales above the beginning level.
For 2000/01, a slight decrease in domestic mill use from June was offset by a slight increase in exports.
U.S. rice production in 2001/02 is projected at 194 million hundredweight, up 4 percent from June and an increase of about 1.5 percent from 2000/01. The numbers are based on new planted acres figures. Long-grain rice production is projected at 149 million hundredweight, up 10 percent from June and an increase of 16 percent from 2000/01.
Combined medium- and short-grain rice production is projected at 45 million hundredweight, down 11 percent from June and a decrease of 28 percent from 2000/01.
Domestic and residual use is projected at 123.9 million hundredweight, up slightly from June and up 2 percent from 2001/02. Rice exports are projected at 81 million hundredweight, up 7 percent from June, but down 2 percent from 2000/01.
Milled rice exports in 2001/02 are projected at 56 million hundredweight, up 10 percent from June, but down 3 percent from 2000/01. Ending stocks in 2001/02 are projected at 24.2 million hundredweight, up 10 percent from June and nearly the same as in 2000/01.
The season-average price range for 2001/02 was lowered 10 cents on each end to $5.15 to $5.65 per hundredweight, compared to a revised $5.55 per hundredweight for 2000/01.
Global rice production in 2001/02 is projected at 395.7 million metric tons, about 700,000 tons below June's projection, and nearly the same as 2000/01. Global consumption in 2001/02 is projected at a record 405.7 million tons and exceeds production, resulting in a drawdown of global stocks for the second consecutive year. World ending stocks are projected at 127.2 million tons, down 900,000 tons from June and down 10 million tons from 2000/01.
Global exports in 2001/02 are projected at 23 million tons, down 1 million tons from June and slightly below 2000/01.