Like the U.S. average corn yield, the U.S. average soybean yield was below trend value in 2011. Market sentiment favors a return to trend yield for soybeans in 2012.

Scott Irwin and Darrel Good of the University of Illinois examine the pattern of yields from 1960 through 2011 to identify any patterns that might be helpful in forming expectations for 2012.

See: Historic Pattern of U.S. Soybean Yields, Any Implications for 2012?