Arkansas ag: $650 million hit
Nov 11, 2009 10:45 AM, By David Bennett, Farm Press Editorial Staff
“USDA had projected a 131 million bushel soybean production for Arkansas. We looked at that and said, ‘Man, it sounds like with the damage and losses in production and everything, we could lose at least 25 percent of this year’s soybean crop.’”
During the last week of October, with Arkansas set to lose many millions of dollars due to unprecedented, near season-long wet weather, Arkansas Farm Bureau analysts compiled a report on just how hard-hit the agricultural sector is.
“We did a down-and-dirty estimate before the last two days of rain,” said Gene Martin, senior market analyst, on Nov. 4. “That quoted (Arkansas Farm Bureau president) Randy Veach that up to $650 million of losses” could be incurred.
“USDA had projected a 131 million bushel soybean production for Arkansas. We looked at that and said, ‘Man, it sounds like with the damage and losses in production and everything, we could lose at least 25 percent of this year’s soybean crop.’
“Put a $9 (per bushel) figure to that. And November is trading above $10, now, so for good soybeans you’re probably looking at $9.50 to $9.75 in many locations for cash markets. That’s over $300 million (potentially lost) just to soybeans.”
As for the state’s cotton, “many cotton producers that typically make close to three bales — maybe making 1,250 to 1,400-pound yields — this year are looking at 700 to 750 pounds.”
Martin has 60 acres near Winchester in southeast Arkansas. In mid-October, he drove down from Little Rock. Martin’s acreage “was one of the few places they’d been able to harvest. It’s a high piece of sandy ground. For the last 20 years, it’s averaged 1,300 pounds per acre. There were five modules sitting on the turn-row.
“I visited with the farmer and he was hoping there were 18 bales per module. That would mean about 750 pounds to the acre. That seems to be typical of what people think they’ll harvest.”
Of course, “that doesn’t bring into account the grades. Cotton needs sunshine and … there hasn’t been much time for it to brighten up. Grades will be bad.
“So, we used a figure of 40 percent loss on cotton. At the point when we did that, only 15 percent of the cotton had been harvested. Typically, we would’ve been at 75 percent.”
Martin says it “was kind of curious” that the Winchester Gin, which normally is running wide-open the first of September, “hadn’t even opened the doors yet. There just hadn’t been any cotton picked (to justify the gin opening). So, the community is losing because a major enterprise isn’t up and running.”
Meanwhile, some 80 percent of the state’s rice has been harvested, but there have been some quality problems and yield loss. “Some of the remaining (20 percent) will probably be down and difficult to (harvest).
