According to USDA, Texas cotton growers will harvest only 4.2 million of the 6.4 million acres they planted this year, indicating an abandonment of around 35 percent. USDA still expects a total U.S. crop of 20.4 million bales. U.S. growers are also expected to produce smaller crops for rice, corn and soybeans this year, due to a number of environmental stresses and/or fewer acres.
USDA’s first survey-based cotton production estimate of 20.4 million bales is based on an average yield projection of 765 pounds, down 66 pounds from 2005.
Due to severe drought, forecast harvested acres for Texas are now 4.2 million acres, down 2.2 million acres from the 6.4 million planted acres USDA estimated in June. Expected average yield for Texas has declined from 723 pounds to 583 pounds, while production is forecast to slip from last year’s record 8.44 million bales to 5.1 million bales.
Rain has been plentiful in many areas of the northern Mid-South, however. Missouri and Tennessee producers are expecting record high production at 1.03 million and 1.25 million bales, respectively.
American-Pima production is forecast at a record-high 893,000 bales, up 42 percent from last year.
Producers expect to harvest 12.8 million acres of all cotton and 12.5 million acres of upland cotton, down 7 percent and 8 percent, respectively. American-Pima harvested area is expected to total a record high 333,000 acres, up 24 percent from 2005.
Estimated exports were lowered 2 percent due to lower supplies and increased foreign competition. Ending stocks were reduced to 4.7 million bales, down 200,000 bales from last month.
World cotton ending stocks were raised nearly 2 percent from last month. India’s production is up 1 million bales from last month, as favorable monsoon rains are expected to boost both area and yield. Higher exports are expected from India and Greece.
The U.S. estimate for 2005-06 included record exports of 17.55 million bales, an increase of 550,000 bales from last month due to larger than anticipated exports in the final weeks of the marketing year.