Soybeans

Bearish news: Trader profit taking has started as harvest pressure begins. Soybean export inspections were down 40 percent this week. The good to excellent rating was left at 64 percent. World carryover supply estimates are at a record high of 65 million tons, next year 75 million.

Export inspections are down 40 percent near 7 million tons. Palm oil exports have decreased 17 percent.

China is selling 1.5 million tons of soybean reserves into domestic markets to hold down prices. U.S. exports in August were near 3 million tons, down a million from July. Weekly export sales of 614,000 tons were disappointing.

Bullish news: Yield estimates for soybeans have turned slightly lower but the crop condition rating remains above average.

Export sales have been exceeding expectations for two months. Soy oil deliveries were above expectations at 35,000 contracts. Soy-oil deliveries of 7,600 contracts support prices. World demand projections are over 250 million tons but production is expected to exceed that number by at least 7 million tons.

Corn

Ninety-four percent of corn is in the dough stage, 17 percent is mature and harvest is under way in the North Delta.

Bullish news: Corn yields are lower than expected. Another 1 bushel drop means the total production is down another 81 million bushels. The EPA is expected to approve ethanol blends of 15 percent in gasoline. Ethanol production is 17 percent above last year.

Export inspections increased 2 million bushels to 45 million. Demand from Asia is increasing as their economies improve. Brazil exported a million tons of corn but U.S. weekly export sales were over 1.6 million tons. Exports exceeded market anticipation by a half million tons.

China has flood damage in corn growing regions. The state released 1.6 million tons of corn from reserves for sale into domestic markets to keep prices down. Less than 600,000 tons were actually purchased.

Bearish news: Trader profit taking has begun as harvest started. Even fund traders have sold 250 contracts. Weakening economic factors could limit meat production and therefore feed use. Feed and fuel use in the United States are not expected to increase and supplies are adequate.

USDA left the corn condition rating at seventy percent good to excellent. This anticipates yields to average at least 164 bushels. World corn production estimates reach as high as 845 million tons.

Wheat

Seventy percent of U. S. wheat is harvested. World grain production is down 4 million tons.

Bearish news: Wheat prices declined in Europe and Asia. Argentine wheat production is anticipated to reach 10 million tons. That is an increase of 3 million tons over last year.

Bullish news: Germany has quality problems and half of their wheat could be relegated to feed grade. Germany imported food wheat from the United States for the first time in three years.

 Australian production estimates are down a million tons at 22 million. Russia has planted only one-third of the normal winter wheat crop. Russian wheat production is down 26 percent. France may have already sold half of their exportable wheat.

Export inspections were accurately anticipated at 25 million bushels. Weekly export sales were again over a million tons.

Rice

Bearish news: Fundamentally, rice supply exceeds rice demand and harvest pressure is well under way. U.S. rice production and stored rice in Thailand are keeping a lid on prices. Short term indicators are tuning negative.

Bullish news: Rice yields are below USDA estimates. Higher wheat prices continue to support rice market prices. Weekly export sales were above anticipations near 130,000 tons.

The floods in Pakistan have not only taken away part of that nation’s production, some stored rice was damaged. Pakistani exports will be limited. Fund traders are buying rice in the wake of Pakistani flooding. World prices are higher: Thailand $490, Vietnam $440.

Cotton

The cotton crop has 30 percent of bolls opening and 96 percent setting bolls.

Bullish news: Economic numbers reflect increased income, increased spending and an increased saving rate for U.S. consumers. Weekly export sales of 270,000 bales met expectations.

Fundamentally, demand exceeds supply. Demand from Asia trumps economic factors affecting market prices. German and Asian economies are growing despite the weaker U.S. economy.

Pakistan production is down significantly and U.S. production is less than anticipated by USDA projections.

Bearish news: Cotton technical charts are showing signs of topping out. Trader profit taking is likely at this time. This could represent a selling opportunity for growers. Technical charts are short-term indicators. The long-term fundamentals of supply and demand favor higher prices.

email: Ray Nabors