In its initial assessment of U.S. and world supply and demand prospects, USDA is projecting bigger U.S. corn and soybean crops for 2013-14 and a smaller U.S. cotton crop. World cotton stocks are projected at 93 million bales, a third record in a row.
U.S. corn production is projected at 14.1 billion bushels, up 3.4 billion from 2012-13 when extreme drought and heat reduced yields to their lowest levels since 1995-96. Yield is projected at 158 bushels per acre.
U.S. corn use for 2013-14 is projected up 16 percent from 2012-13 on higher feed and residual disappearance, increased use for ethanol, sweeteners, and starch, and a partial recovery in exports. Lower corn prices and high prices for Renewable Identification Numbers (RINS) support profitability for ethanol producers.
U.S. corn exports for 2013-14 are projected 550 million bushels higher than 2012-13. Global corn production for 2013-14 is projected at a record 965.9 million tons. Foreign corn production is up 23.5 million tons.
Projected cotton production is reduced 19 percent to 14 million bales, based on regional average abandonment and yields. Abandonment for the Southwest is projected at 25 percent due to continued drought conditions. Domestic mill use is projected at 3.5 million bales, 100,000 bales above 2012-13. Exports are projected at 11.5 million bales, down 13 percent from 2012-13 Ending stocks are reduced to 3 million bales.
World ending stocks are projected at nearly 93 million bales, the third consecutive seasonal record, as China’s policy of stockpiling cotton in its national reserve is assumed to continue. World production is projected lower, to 117.8 million bales.
USDA is projecting that China will import 12 million bales in 2013-14 and will add 10 million bales to ending stocks. China’s projected ending stocks of 58.2 million bales would account for 63 percent of world stocks.
U.S. rice production for 2013-14 is projected at 189.5 million hundredweight, down 5 percent from 2012-13. Average all rice yield is projected at 7,317 pounds per acre, down 2 percent from the previous year’s record. Rice exports are projected at 98 million hundredweight, 9 percent below 2012-13, and the lowest since 2008-09.
Long-grain rice exports are projected at 69 million, while combined medium- and short grain rice exports at 29 million.
Rice ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected at 33.1 million hundredweight, 3 percent below the previous year. Long-grain ending stocks are forecast at 21.9 million hundredweight, 7 percent above 2012-13, and combined medium- and short-grain rice stocks at 9 million, 22 percent below the previous year.
Global 2013-14 rice production is projected at a record 479.3 million tons, up 9 million from 2012-13. Global 2013-14 consumption is projected at a record 476.8 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous year.
Soybean production is projected at a record 3.39 billion bushels, up 375 million from 2012-13. U.S. soybean yields are projected at 44.5 bushels per acre, up 4.9 bushels from 2012.
Soybean exports are projected at 1.450 billion bushels. Ending stocks are projected at 265 million bushels, up 140 million from 2012-13.
Global soybean production is projected at 285.5 million tons, up 6 percent from last year. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 85 million tons.
U.S. wheat production is projected at 2.057 billion bushels, down 9 percent from last year. Exports for 2013-14 are projected at 925 million bushels, down 100 million from the 2012-13 projection. At 670 million bushels, ending stocks would be down 61 million bushels from 2012-13.
At 701.1 million tons, projected global wheat production is up 45.5 million tons, and if realized, would be a record. Global ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected at 186.4 million tons, up 6.2 million on the year.