U.S. and world ending stocks for cotton are expected to shrink in 2009-10, according to USDA’s first assessment of U.S. and world supply and demand for the new marketing year.

In its May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA projects U.S. cotton production at 13.25 million bales, a slight increase from 2008, based on planted area estimated in March, combined with historical average abandonment and yields.

USDA lowered projected domestic mill use by 50,000 bales. Exports were reduced 12 percent to 11 million bales. Ending stocks were projected at 5.6 million bales, or 39 percent of total use. The 2009-10 average price received by producers is projected to range from 48 to 60 cents per pound.

World cotton production is forecast at 106.5 million bales, 1.3 percent below last year.

World consumption is projected at 113.5 million bales, a growth rate of just over 3 percent, reflecting a modest recovery in world economic growth and a replenishment of cotton and yarn inventories held by mills.

World trade is expected to rise 15 percent, owing partly to increased imports by China. World ending stocks are projected to fall 7 percent.

e-mail: erobinson@farmpress.com