Markets: soybean harvest point of focus
Nov 11, 2009 10:33 AM, By Ray Nabors, Heartland Ag Network
Farmers are concentrating on soybean harvest, leaving corn in the field. Harvest is 75 percent complete, where 92 percent is the 10-year average. Production estimates increased 69 million bushels.
Weekly soybean export sales were above expectations. Soy oil sales were disappointing this past week. Exports are 23 percent ahead of USDA predictions. Soybean ending stock estimates bearishly increased. Private sources indicate USDA numbers are too high.
Farmers are concentrating on soybean harvest, leaving corn in the field. Harvest is 75 percent complete, where 92 percent is the 10-year average. Production estimates increased 69 million bushels.
India is exporting soy meal. Shipments to China have reached 997,500 tons. Higher oil and palm prices support soybeans.
Corn
Corn export sales have reached 33 percent of the USDA forecast where 38 percent is average. Weekly export sales were 54 percent above last week but below expectations. Ethanol prices are increasing supporting higher corn prices.
Corn harvest is 37 percent complete. The 10-year average is 89 percent complete. U.S. ending stocks were revised lower. Private sources say the USDA predictions of production and carryover are optimistically high.
Wheat
Weekly wheat export sales are 54 percent of USDA forecast. The five-year average is 64.5 percent. Weekly export sales are down 49 percent. Shipments were down 45 percent.
Winter wheat planting progress is 86 percent complete and near the 93 percent average. USDA ending stock estimates bearishly increased.
Australia has reduced wheat production estimates by 14 percent. The total production is anticipated to drop 5 million tons.
Rice
International demand for rice is increasing. India’s drought has forced rice imports. Japan is expanding the amount of rice reserves by a million tons or more. The Philippines has announced the need to import rice. Thailand has ample supplies of rice in storage. The question is what price will stimulate Thailand to export rice. January rice is selling above $15 at the time of this report.
Cotton
Weekly cotton exports were twice market expectations. Shipments were up 62 percent in one week. Production estimates were 13 million bales. Recent estimates indicate that number is 300,000 bales too high. Cotton quality is also lower than the previous two years.
USDA reduced carry over supply estimates to 4.9 million bales. Any supply estimate under 6 million bales is considered tight supply. When supplies go down and demand is constant or rising, prices go up. Harvest is 44 percent complete but the average is 65 percent.
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