- Brazilian farmers intend to increase soybean acres next season.
- World soybean production estimates have been revised upward due to increased soybean planting intentions in Brazil and South America.
- China has 6 million tons of soybeans stored from last season that must be moved out to store new soybeans.
- Soybean prices in China are dropping.
- Chinese soybean imports in August were down 3.5 percent.
Bullish news: Corn yields have not met USDA projections so far. However, the Corn Belt is barely beginning harvest. The University of Illinois predicts an average yield of 158 bushels per acre. If yields are below 160 bushels per acre in the Corn Belt then ending supplies will drop below a billion bushels and corn supply will be tight.
Traders expect corn yield estimates to drop 2 bushels reducing seasonal ending stocks to near 1.3 billion bushels. USDA reduced corn yield projections 2.5 bushels. Ending stocks are down to 1.1 billion bushels 300 billion below last year. December corn broke through resistance and making a 14 month high. The good to excellent rating dropped 1 percent to 69 percent.
Weekly ethanol production increased 2.5 percent to 875,000 barrels a day. That required nearly 92 million bushels.
Bearish news: Trader profit taking is likely if production makes 13.2 billion bushels. Traders are holding many more buy contracts than sell contracts. Weekly export inspections of 38 million bushels are down from 51 million last week. Weekly export sales 680,000 tons did not meet expectations.
Chinese weekly auction; 1 million tons of strategic reserve corn sold less than 19 percent. Brazil increase corn production estimates 2 million tons to 56 million.