What is in this article?:
- As the cotton industry looks to 2012, Adams says U.S. planted area will be a key issue.
- He says the NCC annual planting intentions survey indicates acreage across the U.S. Cotton Belt will decline by 7.5 percent.
- China's stocks policy could also play a key role in future prices.
“As we look longer term we wonder how they will go about implementing that policy. Going forward will it continue to support the market or will it dampen upside potential if they decide to turn some of that over and release some supplies? China is a key wildcard.”
Weather in the Southwest U.S. is also a wildcard. “We still have drought conditions in many parts of Texas. We’re just going to have to see how that plays out because that can certainly have the potential to swing the U.S. crop by 2million to 3 million bales.”
He says the industry hopes to see a continued “modest recovery in the general economy.”
Cotton’s price decline also may help push demand. “Cotton prices right now are much more competitive with polyester than where they were a year ago, so we do anticipate global demand can grow as we go into the 2012 marketing year.”
He says growth globally could be around 3.5 percent above 2011 demand.
Still, global stocks weigh on the market. “They continue to grow slightly as we go into 2012,” Adams says. “Without any major weather problems, we see global stocks continuing to build slightly as we go into 2012.”