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- Continuing high levels of domestic corn-based ethanol production and gains in exports will keep corn demand high, according to USDA's 10-year projections.
- Cotton prices are projected to fall in the initial years of the projection period and rise only moderately in subsequent years, reducing producer returns.
- Continued growth of U.S. rough-rice exports to Latin America (nearly all long-grain rice) is projected to account for most of a projected expansion of U.S. rice exports.
U.S. soybean plantings are projected to decline in 2012, reflecting competition from corn, but then expand to 76 million acres by 2014. Over the rest of the projection period, growth in both domestic use and export demand keep prices and producer returns favorable enough to hold soybean plantings steady.
Strong global demand for soybeans, particularly in China, is expected to boost soybean trade over the projection period. Even though U.S. soybean exports are projected to rise, competition from South America is projected to lead to a reduction in the U.S. share of global soybean trade from 37 percent in 2011-12 to about 32 percent by 2021-22.
Strengthening demand for soybeans are projected to hold soybean prices high throughout the projection period.