What is in this article?:
- Winter: warmer, drier than average
- Regional highlights
- A moderate to strong La Niña will be the dominant climate factor influencing weather across most of the U.S. this winter.
- All southern states are at risk of having above normal wildfire conditions starting this winter and lasting into the spring.
Most of the South and Southeast will be warmer and drier than average through February 2011, while the Pacific Northwest should brace for a colder and wetter than average winter, according to the annual Winter Outlook released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
A moderate to strong La Niña will be the dominant climate factor influencing weather across most of the U.S. this winter.
La Niña is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, unlike El Niño which is associated with warmer than normal water temperatures. Both of these climate phenomena, which typically occur every 2-5 years, influence weather patterns throughout the world and often lead to extreme weather events. Last winter’s El Niño contributed to record-breaking rain and snowfall leading to severe flooding in some parts of the country, with record heat and drought in other parts of the country. Although La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, it also has the potential to bring weather extremes to parts of the nation.
“La Niña is in place and will strengthen and persist through the winter months, giving us a better understanding of what to expect between December and February,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service. “This is a good time for people to review the outlook and begin preparing for what winter may have in store.”
“Other climate factors will play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”