Based on higher soybean acreage from June, USDA is projecting a record soybean crop this year.
USDA raised its forecast for U.S. cotton production to 16.5 million bales and projected record U.S. production for soybeans in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
USDA raised expected cotton production by 1.5 million bales to 16.5 million bales due to larger planted area indicated in USDA June Acreage report and lower expected abandonment based on favorable precipitation and improved crop conditions. Domestic mill use was raised 100,000 bales due to expanding domestic mill capacity, while the export forecast was raised 500,000 bales due to the larger available supply.
Despite higher disappearance, ending stocks were raised to 5.2 million bales which, if realized, would be the largest since 2008-09.
China’s estimated cotton consumption was reduced 1 million bales for 2013-14 and 500,000 bales for 2014-15, as high domestic price levels and uncertainty about future policies have discouraged cotton use in textiles in favor of polyester.
However, China’s consumption is expected to grow nearly 6 percent in 2014-15 as a result of the announced elimination of government price supports. For 2014-15, world production was raised 500,000 bales, to 116.4 million bales.
U.S. soybean production is projected at a record 3.8 billion bushels, up 165 million due to increased harvested area, forecast at 84.1 million acres in June. Soybean yield is projected at 45.2 bushels per acre.
Global soybean production is projected at 304.8 million tons, up 4.8 million mostly due to higher production in the United States.
Soybean ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected at 140 million bushels, up 15 million.
U.S. corn production is projected at 13.86 billion bushels, 75million bushels lower than last month, based on harvested acres from the June acreage report. The national average corn yield remains projected at a record 165.3 bushels per acre thanks to favorable early July crop conditions.
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Corn ending stocks are projected up 75 million bushels with a higher carryin and lower feed and residual use more than offsetting the decline in production.
Corn used to produce ethanol is projected 25 million bushels higher based on the pace of ethanol production to date and lower projected sorghum food, seed, and industrial use, most of which is for ethanol.
Sorghum exports are projected up 10 million bushels reflecting continued steady export sales.
Rice production for 2014-15 is forecast at 226 million hundredweight, up 13 million or 6 percent due entirely to an increase in area. All rice average yield is estimated at 7,469 pounds per acre, 3 percent below record 2013-14.
Ending stocks for 2014-15 are projected at 39.8 million hundredweight, up 2.5 million.
USDA says larger domestic supplies of both long-grain rice and medium-grain rice along with plentiful supplies among most of the major global exporters will exert downward pressure on prices.
Global rice production is projected at a record 479.4 million tons, down 1.3 million from last month. World ending stocks for 2014-15 are projected at 108.5 million tons, down 2.1 million from last month, and 3 million below the 2013-14 stocks forecast.