The U.S. corn and soybean crops could be down 260 million bushels and 100 million bushels from last month, according to the annual farmer yield survey Allendale released Sept. 9. Allendale is a commodity research firm based in McHenry, Ill.
The survey was conducted from Aug. 18 through Aug. 29. Conditions through many of the major corn-producing states, especially in the Midwest, have since declined, according to Allendale's Joe Victor, “so the numbers could be “a shade on the high side.”
Allendale estimated U.S. production for corn at 9.81 billion bushels, based off a 136-bushel average yield and USDA's latest harvested acreage report indicating 71.92 million acres for corn. “That is substantially less that USDA's last month estimate of 10.64 billion bushels.”
Allendale estimated U.S. soybean production at 2.75 billion bushels, based on a 37.9-bushel-per-acre yield on 72.63 million acres. In August, USDA estimated the soybean crop at 2.862 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 39.4 bushel per acre.
In addition, the National Weather Service is forecasting below average temperatures for the majority of the Midwest. “Statistics also indicate that much of the Midwest corn crop from Nebraska to Indiana is significantly far from maturing,” Victor said.
According to USDA, about 44 percent of the nation's corn crop is in good to excellent condition, about 3 percent above year-ago levels. Meanwhile 43 percent of U.S. soybeans were reported in good to excellent conditions, compared to 45 percent last year.
“Topside objective for corn in $2.50 with a harvest low near $2.26 to $2.30,” Victor said. “For soybeans, we see a $6 top for the November contract and a low of $5.20 to $5.30.”