U.S. cotton crop could drop to 15.4 million bales

  • Weather has been too dry and too hot for too long in Texas, which is starting to look like a desert state, according to Carl Anderson, Extension professor emeritus, Texas A&M University.
  • Anderson anticipates that as much of 50 percent of the 7.1 million acre Texas cotton crop will be lost due to extreme conditions. The 7.1 million acres include roughly 5 million dryland acres, and about 2.1 million irrigated.
  • The Southeast and Mid-South could produce a combined crop of between 8.6 and 8.8 million bales, while the Far West is expected to produce a crop of between 2.1 million and 2.2 million bales.

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Far West

“We’re in pretty decent shape in California,” said Jarral Neeper, president of Calcot, Ltd. “We had excellent rainfall over the winter and snow in the mountains, which encouraged growers to plant a little bit more cotton. But it also put the crop a little bit behind schedule.

Neeper says weather this season has been better suited for people than cotton, “ but the crop is progressing. Two weeks ago, we had a nice warm up and the plants took off. I think growers are very optimistic.”

Neeper said Lygus “have caused some problems, and there has been a lot of spraying, but a lot of growers haven’t had bug problems at all.”

As of July 17, USDA had 65 percent of the California crop rated in good to excellent condition.

According to Neeper, the Arizona crop, “especially in central Arizona and along the river, is in as good a shape as it’s ever been. About 40 percent of that crop is in excellent condition, 40 percent is very good and 20 percent is poor. The portion of the crop in poor condition “was planted late behind the grain crop.”

Disease problems have affected cotton in the southeast region of the state, Neeper said. “The crop is just not taking off as quickly as the growers would like.”

Neeper says the New Mexico crop is progressing nicely “although farmers would like to see a little more water in the eastern New Mexico area.

Neeper estimates an upland cotton crop of 1.3 million to 1.4 million bales and Pima production of around 750,000 bales for the Far West, for a total crop of about 2.1 million to 2.2 million bales.

The Cotton Roundtable was sponsored by Intercontinental Exchange, Ag Market Network, Certified FiberMax, Cotton Incorporated and Farm Press Publications.

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