All in all, “we see an extremely bullish situation,” said Cleveland. “Funds continue to pour money into the market. I think they’ll continue to do so because of their concerns about the U.S. and world economies. … Even with a 6-cent drop (in price) the market would still be very strong, technically.”

From a fundamental viewpoint, “if the USDA is on target with its 2.7 million bale carryover, we could have an entire season where 75 to 80 cents looks cheap,” said Stevens. “The market has now become completely abstract. And with empty pipelines it’s extremely difficult to justify prices with the fundamentals.”

The situation, said Stevens, brings to mind a truism: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

“How far can the market go?” asked Stevens. “The answer is too far.”